Overpopulated Egypt Seeks to Reduce Fertility Rate by 2030

L’Egypte surpeuplée tente de réduire le taux de fécondité pour 2030



The aim is to get Egyptian women to attain a fertility rate of 2.4 children, she said, speaking on the sidelines of a conference on youth hosted by the U.S.-based NGO Population Council in Cairo. Women currently give birth to 3.5 children each on average.

L’objectif est d’atteindre un taux de fécondité de 2,4 enfants par femme.

Global oil supply to lag demand after 2020 unless new investments are approved soon

Global oil supply could struggle to keep pace with demand after 2020, risking a sharp increase in prices, unless new projects are approved soon, according to the latest five-year oil market forecast from the International Energy Agency.

The global picture appears comfortable for the next three years but supply growth slows considerably after that, according to Oil 2017, the IEA’s market analysis and forecast report previously known as the Medium-Term Oil Market Report. The demand and supply trends point to a tight global oil market, with spare production capacity in 2022 falling to a 14-year low.


The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” Delusion

In my opinion, the time has come to move away from believing that everything that is called “renewable” is helpful to the system. We now have real information on how expensive wind and solar are, when indirect costs are included. Unfortunately, in the real world, high-cost is ultimately a deal killer, because wages don’t rise at the same time. We need to understand where we really are, not live in a fairy tale world produced by politicians who would like us to believe that the situation is under control.

Tout politicien qui promet de la croissance

Tout politicien qui promet de la croissance, plus de pouvoir d’achat, moins de chômage, etc, est soit ignorant soit menteur.

Je vous propose deux paraboles, de mon cru.

La parabole de l’orange.
Un politicien brandit une orange et dit: je vais extraire du jus de cette orange de manière durable. Et pourtant, personne ne trouve ça drôle.

La parabole du pincement.
Si je vous pince jusqu’à provoquer une forte douleur, il y a deux moyens d’arrêter la douleur. Soit j’arrête de vous pincer, soit je vous donne un anti-douleur pour pouvoir continuer à vous pincer en toute quiétude. Cette dernière méthode est largement utilisée par les politiciens.

Short at some point in the next 5 years

2015 was a year where a lot of projects came online that were developed in previous years. There is less of that this year. So 2 million for this year seem reasonable. Next year will be interesting.

If demand keeps growing, there should be a substantial shortfall, draining storage. The only way to close the fast growing gap is a miraculous recovery of Libya and others that are currently hampered by political unrest.

There are still a lot of projects due this year and next and even into 2018, but not quite enough to make up for the declines. Probably 2.5 to 3.5 mmbpd fall over the three years barring big, unexpected outages. In 2019, 2020 and 2021 there will be dramatic and accelerating falls unless a lot of expensive, and currently delayed, oil developments are fast tracked soon, or a lot of very cheap oil is found somewhere, or in fill drilling ramps up quickly on the big reservoirs. We’ll get to see the truth behind LTO sustainability and flexibility; that and depending on how demand goes, plus the real storage numbers will determine prices and therefore future supply developments. Overall though I agree, I think we will suddenly find ourselves short at some point in the next 5 years, and without many options.

2015 Peak oil ?

En cette fin d’année 2015, il m’a semblé intéressant de vous soumettre la dernière analyse de Ron Patterson, qui persiste et signe:

2015 sera l’année du pic de production mondial de pétrole

Quels sont ses arguments (en résumé)?

Sur les cinq pays responsables de l’augmentation de la production ces dix dernières années, quatre ont, selon lui, atteint leur pic de production (national).

Les autres pays producteurs ont perdu au total 5 Mb/j sur la même période.

La suite et plus de détails ici:

I am more convinced than ever that 2015 will be the final peak in world oil production. And we may know well before a lot of people realize. It all depends on the decline rate… and on the state of the economy… and on the political situation in MENA… and on…”

Les commentaires sont également intéressants. Par exemple:
Ron Patterson says: 11/20/2015 at 6:43 pm

Pour rappel, sa première allusion au Peak Oil pour 2015 se trouve ici:

Bien entendu… chacun(e) est libre de se forger sa propre opinion…

Avec beaucoup d’espoir,
Patrick (le criminologue)