2015 was a year where a lot of projects came online that were developed in previous years. There is less of that this year. So 2 million for this year seem reasonable. Next year will be interesting.
If demand keeps growing, there should be a substantial shortfall, draining storage. The only way to close the fast growing gap is a miraculous recovery of Libya and others that are currently hampered by political unrest.
There are still a lot of projects due this year and next and even into 2018, but not quite enough to make up for the declines. Probably 2.5 to 3.5 mmbpd fall over the three years barring big, unexpected outages. In 2019, 2020 and 2021 there will be dramatic and accelerating falls unless a lot of expensive, and currently delayed, oil developments are fast tracked soon, or a lot of very cheap oil is found somewhere, or in fill drilling ramps up quickly on the big reservoirs. We’ll get to see the truth behind LTO sustainability and flexibility; that and depending on how demand goes, plus the real storage numbers will determine prices and therefore future supply developments. Overall though I agree, I think we will suddenly find ourselves short at some point in the next 5 years, and without many options.